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All predictions
Awards·Settles Jul 20, 2026

Who wins the 2026 Golden Ball?

Best player of the tournament

Price movement

Implied probability for the top five outcomes across selectable timeframes

$11,102,728 Vol.|$1.09M Liq.|Jul 20, 2026
Lionel Messi flagLionel Messi91%Rodri flagRodri6%Lamine Yamal flagLamine Yamal2%Kylian Mbappé flagKylian Mbappé2%Jude Bellingham flagJude Bellingham0%

Implied odds

Tap an outcome to load it in the trade panel

NationChanceTrade
  • 1
    Lionel Messi flagLionel Messi
    01Lionel Messi flag

    Lionel Messi

    Favorite

    $845,139 Vol.

    91.0%
  • 2
    Rodri flagRodri
    02Rodri flag

    Rodri

    $2,492,465 Vol.

    5.5%
  • 3
    Lamine Yamal flagLamine Yamal
    03Lamine Yamal flag

    Lamine Yamal

    $1,622,562 Vol.

    2.2%
  • 4
    Kylian Mbappé flagKylian Mbappé
    04Kylian Mbappé flag

    Kylian Mbappé

    $781,510 Vol.

    1.6%
  • 5
    Jude Bellingham flagJude Bellingham
    05Jude Bellingham flag

    Jude Bellingham

    $350,780 Vol.

    0.4%
  • 6
    Harry Kane flagHarry Kane
    06Harry Kane flag

    Harry Kane

    $372,868 Vol.

    0.3%
  • 7
    Erling Haaland flagErling Haaland
    07Erling Haaland flag

    Erling Haaland

    $386,748 Vol.

    0.2%
  • 8
    Michael Olise flagMichael Olise
    08Michael Olise flag

    Michael Olise

    $220,476 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 9
    Vinícius Jr. flagVinícius Jr.
    09Vinícius Jr. flag

    Vinícius Jr.

    $82,543 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 10
    Ousmane Dembélé flagOusmane Dembélé
    10Ousmane Dembélé flag

    Ousmane Dembélé

    $1,754,200 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 11
    Cristiano Ronaldo flagCristiano Ronaldo
    11Cristiano Ronaldo flag

    Cristiano Ronaldo

    $158,009 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 12
    Rayan Cherki flagRayan Cherki
    12Rayan Cherki flag

    Rayan Cherki

    $8,571 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 13
    Pedri flagPedri
    13Pedri flag

    Pedri

    $771,820 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 14
    Bruno Fernandes flagBruno Fernandes
    14Bruno Fernandes flag

    Bruno Fernandes

    $106,671 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 15
    Vitinha flagVitinha
    15Vitinha flag

    Vitinha

    $32,784 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 16
    Florian Wirtz flagFlorian Wirtz
    16Florian Wirtz flag

    Florian Wirtz

    $21,484 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 17
    Neymar flagNeymar
    17Neymar flag

    Neymar

    $13,403 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 18
    Gavi flagGavi
    18Gavi flag

    Gavi

    $17,317 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 19
    Bukayo Saka flagBukayo Saka
    19Bukayo Saka flag

    Bukayo Saka

    $9,063 Vol.

    0.1%
  • 20
    Declan Rice flagDeclan Rice
    20Declan Rice flag

    Declan Rice

    $1,054,333 Vol.

    0.1%

How this settles

Resolution and payout rules

This prediction resolves on the official FIFA World Cup 2026 result for Who wins the 2026 Golden Ball?. YES shares pay $1.00 USDC at resolution; NO shares pay $0.00.

Category
Awards
Settlement date
Jul 20, 2026
Volume
$11.10M
Liquidity
$1.09M
Source
FIFA official / Polymarket CLOB
Scope
FIFA World Cup 2026 only
Illustrative odds until on-chain CLOB settlement is live on the hub.

Trade panel

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Lionel Messi at 91.0% implied

Who wins the 2026 Golden Ball

Lionel Messi

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To win1.1x
$0.00Payout if correct
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